Rail industry 2030 – systematic risks of the strong growth

The worldwide rail industry faces a 30% growth in passenger and cargo transportation until the year 2030. Besides obvious chances, there are potential risks especially for the engineering and the sales of rail systems identified by the recent RailCap 2030 study.

Trains gain importance as efficient and ecological means of transportation. A growth of 30% over the coming 18 years is possible. The study RailCap 2030 outlines that and estimates not just chances for the suppliers of rail systems, but also clear risks.

Thus engineering departments of rail suppliers are facing multiple challenges. The markets for rail systems are determined by small lot quantities. There is just a limited amount of system suppliers for on rail system. If the market grows, the motivation of other potential system suppliers to enter this market will grow.

The current established system suppliers or configurators will just keep or extent their market share, if they boost their innovative power. According to RailCap 2030 not just creativity for new solutions is important but also the product modularity of vehicle systems has to be reviewed. System construction kits may help to better meet individual customer requirements in a global market. Faster realization at high quality standards will increase customer satisfaction and secure a reliable product demand.

„This means a significant change of today’s engineering practices for rail systems suppliers“, Fabian Koark says. As initiator of the recent study and an expert for organizational change he adds: “The coming years will show, how they can profit by the experiences made in the automotive industry, especially in the commercial sector.”

The automotive industry handled a similar constellation in the last century.
The modularizations lead them from global chassis platforms, over common construction kits to industry-wide standards like AUTOSAR on bit and byte level.

The study RailCap 2030 is a research based on the research of INVENSITY GmbH, the innovation and technology consulting company.